Britain’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.2% last month – its first increase since December last year – and is expected to remain above its 2% target for the rest of the year.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the government’s preferred measure of the cost of living climbed again as domestic energy bills fell by less last month than in July 2023.
Gabriella Dickens, G7 economist at Axa Investment Managers, said July’s rise was not a one-off. “The headline rate will rise again over the next few months, as the sharp declines in energy prices in 2023 are not repeated. We expect inflation to end the year marginally in excess of 2.5%,” she said.
The Bank said earlier this month that it expected the consumer prices index measure of inflation would continue rising and peak at about 2.75% before falling back again.
Despite the prospect of inflation continuing to rise, July’s increase was slightly smaller than the increase to 2.3% anticipated by the financial markets, and prompted speculation of possible back-to-back interest rate cuts when Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy committee meets next month. Borrowing costs were cut from 5.25% to 5% earlier this month.
Prices fell by 0.2% in July – helped by cheaper hotel stays – but this was smaller than the 0.4% decrease in prices in July 2023, when energy bills dropped sharply, meaning that the headline rate of inflation increased. The energy price cap, set by the industry regulator, Ofgem, fell by 8.6% in July 2023 but by 7.2% in the same month this year.
The ONS’s chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Inflation ticked up a little in July as, although domestic energy costs fell, they fell by less than a year ago. This was partially offset by hotel costs, which fell in July after strong growth in June.”
Core inflation – which excludes food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – rose by 3.3% in the year to July, down from 3.5% in June. Inflation in the services sector, which is closely watched by the Bank’s interest rate setters, fell from 5.7% to 5.2% last month.
The fall in services sector inflation was largely because of falling hotel prices, which dropped by 6.4% in July compared with an 8.2% rise the previous year. The ONS said it doubted whether the drop in the cost of a hotel room could be attributed to the ending of price hikes caused by Taylor Swift concerts in June, which some analysts had suggested.
Martin Sartorius, a principal economist at the employers’ lobbying group the CBI, said: “Inflation undershooting the Bank of England’s expectations will be seen as a positive sign that price pressures are continuing to normalise for households and businesses.
“Today’s data will give the Bank’s monetary policy committee some measure of confidence that domestic price pressures are less likely to derail a sustainable return to the 2% target.”
Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “The new government is under no illusion as to the scale of the challenge we have inherited, with many families still struggling with the cost of living. That is why we are taking the tough decisions now to fix the foundations of our economy so we can rebuild Britain and make every part of the country better off.”
Jeremy Hunt, the shadow chancellor, said: “The chancellor must not use this data as an excuse to break her promises and hike up taxes – tax rises she had planned all along.”
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The money markets now indicate that there is a 40% chance that the Bank Rate will be cut to 4.75% next month. Before Wednesday’s data, a September rate cut was only a 36% probability, according to City pricing.
The ONS figures coincide with the publication of a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank showing that poorer UK households faced significantly higher food price inflation than richer households during the height of the cost of living crisis between 2021 and 2023.
The ONS said food and non-alcoholic beverage prices had risen by 1.5% in the year to July 2024, the same rate as the year to June. The June figure was the joint lowest annual rate since October 2021, when it was 1.3%, but for the first time since March 2023 the annual rate did not come down, the ONS said.
Although the pace of food-price inflation has moderated, the cost of groceries has increased by 32.6% since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Gas prices are up by 68% and electricity prices by 45%.
July’s retail prices index inflation figure, which was 3.6% last month, was historically used to set the following year’s annual rail fare rise until 2023.
The Department for Transport has not revealed whether this will now be used to determine changes in the cost of train travel. A spokesperson said: “No decisions have been made on next year’s rail fares but our aim is that prices are as affordable as possible for passengers.”